Methodology

Player ratings displayed on the platform are sourced from FIDE's official monthly rating lists. Standard, Rapid, and Blitz ratings are synced separately. Only the official list effective date is recorded — not the date the data was downloaded.

Players meeting the elite threshold are tracked. Inactive players are excluded from default rankings but retained for historical lookups.

Top players receive enriched profiles with historical rating trajectories, federation details, and activity status. Monthly rating snapshots are deduplicated to ensure one authoritative data point per calendar month.

Peak ratings are computed from the maximum observed rating across all historical snapshots and the current official rating.

The platform tracks elite over-the-board events — tournaments featuring at least one player rated 2650+ FIDE, plus Tier 5 events (World Championship, Candidates) which are always included regardless of rating threshold.

Tournament metadata, participants, standings, round structures, and match results are synced from broadcast sources. Team tournaments are tracked separately. Upcoming events are only displayed when player rosters are available.

H2H records are computed from a comprehensive database of broadcast games from January 2020 onwards. Only standard-rated games are included. Player names are resolved against the database using normalized matching to handle format differences.

Opening preferences are derived from the ECO codes and opening names extracted from game headers. The data provides win/draw/loss breakdowns, most-played openings, and recent game history between any two tracked players.

The match prediction model estimates outcome probabilities (White win, Draw, Black win) for hypothetical encounters between two players. It combines multiple factors including rating difference, recent form, historical head-to-head record, and first-move advantage.

Draw probability is calibrated based on rating proximity — closely rated super-GMs produce higher draw rates. The model is designed for informational purposes and does not claim predictive certainty.

Tournament predictions are generated using Monte Carlo simulation. The model runs thousands of simulated tournament continuations from the current state, blending actual scores with a rating-derived prior to avoid early-round bias.

Each simulated game incorporates the match prediction model with participant-specific context: recent form, prior appearances in the same tournament, pairwise H2H records, and peak rating history. The fraction of simulations where a player finishes first gives the win probability.

Predictions are generated only for invitation and round-robin tournaments, not for team events. Probabilities are normalized to sum to 100%.

Rating forecasts project where a player's rating is heading at 3, 6, and 12 month horizons. The model considers rating trajectory, age curve effects, historical volatility, tournament activity level, and recent game performance.

Confidence intervals (80% and 95%) are derived from historical volatility scaled by the forecast horizon. Forecasts are generated for active Top 100 players and are clearly labeled as model projections, not official predictions.

• All ratings, predictions, and forecasts are unofficial estimates for informational purposes only.
• Tournament simulations assume independent game outcomes and do not model psychological or physical factors.
• H2H data covers January 2020 onwards. Pre-2020 meetings are not included.
• Only elite events (2650+ threshold or Tier 5) are tracked.
• Team tournaments do not receive win-probability predictions.
• Upcoming tournaments require visible player rosters to be displayed.

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